Tweet
Assumption: US 2015 Corn Ethanol Production
Study Position: 30 Billion Gallons per Year
DOE Position: 15 Billion Gallons per Year RFS Cap (see fig. 3)
Assumption: Corn Yield Increase
Study Position: None
DOE Position: Will double between now and 2030, enabling 33 Billion Gallons per Year of Corn Ethanol without new acreage2. (see fig. 1)
Assumption: Land Use Change Paradigm
Study Position: Additional Biofuels Acreage in one place causes harmful land use conversion elsewhere
DOE Position: Agriculture competes with many other land uses. Higher value of agriculture land may prevent urbanization which results into permanent loss of carbon sink.
Assumption: Land Use Change - Model
Study Position: Study Model use 1990s data – with high deforestation rate – leading to excessive carbon "debt" results
DOE Position: Deforestation rate is slowing down and forests are growing in 22 of 50 countries, led by US and China3
Assumption: US Biomass Land Use
Study Position: Corn production will be converted to switchgrass production
DOE Position: Neither policy nor market incentives will lead to this outcome; we have enough resources without impacting corn acreage (see fig. 6)
Assumption: Brazil Biomass Land use
Study Position: Brazil will use deforestation to plant biofuel crops
DOE Position: Sufficient pasture land is available in Brazil for biofuels without impacting Brazil rainforest; Cellulosic ethanol bagasse could double Brazil ethanol production with no additional land
Assumption: Switchgrass productivity
Study Position: Constant
DOE Position: Yield increases can be substantial – because of new domesticated varieties developed for agricultural productivity
Assumption: US Corn Exports
Study Position: Will decline by 62%
DOE Position: Inconsistent with Historical Track Record (see fig. 4)
Study Position: 30 Billion Gallons per Year
DOE Position: 15 Billion Gallons per Year RFS Cap (see fig. 3)
Assumption: Corn Yield Increase
Study Position: None
DOE Position: Will double between now and 2030, enabling 33 Billion Gallons per Year of Corn Ethanol without new acreage2. (see fig. 1)
Assumption: Land Use Change Paradigm
Study Position: Additional Biofuels Acreage in one place causes harmful land use conversion elsewhere
DOE Position: Agriculture competes with many other land uses. Higher value of agriculture land may prevent urbanization which results into permanent loss of carbon sink.
Assumption: Land Use Change - Model
Study Position: Study Model use 1990s data – with high deforestation rate – leading to excessive carbon "debt" results
DOE Position: Deforestation rate is slowing down and forests are growing in 22 of 50 countries, led by US and China3
Assumption: US Biomass Land Use
Study Position: Corn production will be converted to switchgrass production
DOE Position: Neither policy nor market incentives will lead to this outcome; we have enough resources without impacting corn acreage (see fig. 6)
Assumption: Brazil Biomass Land use
Study Position: Brazil will use deforestation to plant biofuel crops
DOE Position: Sufficient pasture land is available in Brazil for biofuels without impacting Brazil rainforest; Cellulosic ethanol bagasse could double Brazil ethanol production with no additional land
Assumption: Switchgrass productivity
Study Position: Constant
DOE Position: Yield increases can be substantial – because of new domesticated varieties developed for agricultural productivity
Assumption: US Corn Exports
Study Position: Will decline by 62%
DOE Position: Inconsistent with Historical Track Record (see fig. 4)
Comment